FULL ANSWER
We’ve received this e-mail from our readers several dozen times, and a Google search for some of its claims turns up hundreds of results. Unfortunately, it is false. It combines and twists several different news stories and studies into a longer tale of sound and fury that ultimately signifies nothing (factually anyway).
The tale begins with an exhortation telling the reader to "go to the bottom of the page and click on the US Government link" for proof of the e-mail’s veracity. Well, we did. And the
link to a U.S. Geological Survey press release from April 2008 directly contradicts the e-mail’s main assertion.
The e-mail says that the Bakken Formation oil reserve (which is located in the Dakotas and Montana) "has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil" and is estimated to hold 503 billion barrels of oil. That’s not true. It credits the USGS report from 2008 as the source of this information. It’s not.
The glowing language and more optimistic estimates about Bakken quoted in the e-mail can be
traced to a 2006 Wall Street Journal story reprinted in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette. But the anonymous author of this e-mail omits an important caveat from that story, which said that "the lofty predictions remain unproven, and skeptics remain."
And there was an incomplete USGS draft study of the Bakken from 2000 that included estimates ranging up to 500 billion barrels. But the Energy Information Administration
explained in 2006 that it was not peer-reviewed and cautioned readers to wait for the official USGS estimate:
EIA, 2006: A draft study by the late organic geochemist Leigh Price provides estimates ranging from 271 to 503 billion barrels (mean of 413 billion) of potential resources in place. The study represents Dr. Price’s work as it stood at the time of his death in August 2000. It was conducted while he was working for the USGS, but it did not receive a complete scientific peer review by the USGS and was not published as a USGS product. A new assessment of the entire basin, due out in about a year, will provide an updated USGS estimate of the technically recoverable oil resources in the Bakken Formation.
The
official estimate, contained in the USGS press release from last year, was a substantially smaller estimate of technically recoverable oil: 3 billion to 4.3 billion barrels.
The e-mail cites James Bartis as a "lead researcher of this study," but he was actually a RAND researcher who led a different, related study. Bartis wrote a 2006
report on oil shale development and resources in the United States that said "the midpoint in our estimate range, 800 billion barrels, is more than triple the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia." That’s for the entire U.S., not Bakken alone. But Bartis also cautioned that the technology to extract oil from the fields was not yet commercially viable and said that even "under high growth assumptions, an oil shale production level of 1 million barrels per day is probably more than 20 years in the future, and 3 million barrels per day is probably more than 30 years into the future." Nowhere in his study did Bartis say that Bakken has "more than 2 trillion barrels," as the e-mail falsely claims.
Snopes.com
reviewed a similar mutation of this e-mail and traced the 2 trillion barrels of oil estimate to a
tout sheet from the Stansberry Report Online, a group referenced in the e-mail. Snopes also noted that Stansberry is an investment newsletter trying to sell subscriptions. The Stansberry site appeared to be down when we tried to access it, but the tout sheet was reproduced
here.
Snopes ultimatley ruled the e-mail to be a "mixture of true and false information." We agree. But we’d add that the email’s implication that politicians, environmentalists and the media are preventing oil drilling in the Bakken is decidedly false. The Bakken has already seen drilling and was a principal cause of the recent increase in U.S. proven oil reserves,
according to the EIA.
–Justin Bank
Sources
Fialka, John J. "
Wildcat producer sparks oil boom on Montana plains."
Wall Street Journal, 5 April 2006.
Press Release. "
3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate—." United States Geological Survey Newsroom, 10 April 2008.
USGS Frequently Asked Questions. "
What is the time frame to accomplish the retrieval of this oil and gas?" accessed 16 March 2009.